Developing an Early-warning model for rubber powdery mildew disease


Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) latex yield is influenced by the complex interplay of climate, disease, other biotic conditions, and plantation management. However, the interrelationships and potential influencing networks between rubber latex yield and these factors are rarely quantitatively assessed. Our study was conducted on a state-managed farm in Xishuangbanna; a tropical region of southwestern China. Rubber latex is important to the local economy, yet Xishuangbanna’s climate is considered suboptimal for rubber cultivation, and the powdery mildew disease has become prevalent. Understanding impacts on rubber phenology and latex yield could inform better management practices. Using observational data on daily rubber latex yield combined with detailed phenology, powdery mildew, and climatic data from 2004-2010, we investigated the effects of climate, phenology, and powdery mildew disease on rubber latex yield in March. We found critical influencing periods of daily temperature difference on rubber latex yield occurring in March. Partial Least Square regression analysis and Variance Partitioning analysis were conducted using 35 phenological variables, eight powdery mildew related variables, and two climatic variables. The most influential variables affecting rubber latex yield in March included the following: the duration of leaf flushing phenology (duration of both leaf flushing and leaves turning light green), the mean and maximum percentage of leaves infected by powdery mildew, and the daily temperature differences during Jan-Mar. Subsequent Canonical Correlation Analysis and linear regression found that raised daily temperature differences from Jan-Mar had the greatest impact, causing higher rubber latex yield. This study comprises the first time that a network of intercorrelations consisting of phenology, powdery mildew disease, and climate has been shown to determine rubber latex yield. Our comprehensive quantitative assessment revealed the relative importance of antecedent daily temperature differences, phenology, and powdery mildew disease as well as their complex interconnections in influencing rubber latex yield.

Speaker: Dr. Zhai Deli

Affiliation: Kunming Institute of Botany, CAS

Time: March 29, 2022

Venue: 瞩目会议平台 会议 ID:135 871 8714  会议密码 PWD:666666 

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